Four approaches are discussed: Variational Bounds of Mutual Information, Density Matching, ProbabilisticClassifier,andDensity-RatioFitting. Proposition3(IJS and its neural estimation, restating Jensen-Shannon bound with f-GAN objective [22]). We adopt the "concatenate critic" design [20, 22, 23] for our neural network parametrized function. NotethatProbabilistic Classifier method applies sigmoid function to the outputs to ensure probabilistic outputs. To proceed, it suffices if we could provide an upper bound forPrS(|lS(θk)| ε/2).

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

A key quantity of interest is the mutual information and generalizations thereof, including conditional mutual information, multivariate mutual information, total correlation and directed information.

This paper presents a novel deep learning framework for estimating multivariate joint extremes of metocean variables, based on the Semi-Parametric Angular-Radial (SPAR) model. When considered in polar coordinates, the problem of modelling multivariate extremes is transformed to one of modelling an angular density, and the tail of a univariate radial variable conditioned on angle. In the SPAR approach, the tail of the radial variable is modelled using a generalised Pareto (GP) distribution, providing a natural extension of univariate extreme value theory to the multivariate setting. In this work, we show how the method can be applied in higher dimensions, using a case study for five metocean variables: wind speed, wind direction, wave height, wave period and wave direction. The angular variable is modelled empirically, while the parameters of the GP model are approximated using fully-connected deep neural networks. Our data-driven approach provides great flexibility in the dependence structures that can be represented, together with computationally efficient routines for training the model. Furthermore, the application of the method requires fewer assumptions about the underlying distribution(s) compared to existing approaches, and an asymptotically justified means for extrapolating outside the range of observations. Using various diagnostic plots, we show that the fitted models provide a good description of the joint extremes of the metocean variables considered.

Non-parametric multivariate density estimation faces strong statistical and computational bottlenecks, and the more practical approaches impose near-parametric assumptions on the form of the density functions. In this paper, we leverage recent developments to propose a class of non-parametric models which have very attractive computational and statistical properties. Our approach relies on the simple function space assumption that the conditional distribution of each variable conditioned on the other variables has a non-parametric exponential family form.

We present a novel offline-online method to mitigate the computational burden of the characterization of conditional beliefs in statistical learning. In the offline phase, the proposed method learns the joint law of the belief random variables and the observational random variables in the tensor-train (TT) format. In the online phase, it utilizes the resulting order-preserving conditional transport map to issue real-time characterization of the conditional beliefs given new observed information. Compared with the state-of-the-art normalizing flows techniques, the proposed method relies on function approximation and is equipped with thorough performance analysis. This also allows us to further extend the capability of transport maps in challenging problems with high-dimensional observations and high-dimensional belief variables. On the one hand, we present novel heuristics to reorder and/or reparametrize the variables to enhance the approximation power of TT. On the other, we integrate the TT-based transport maps and the parameter reordering/reparametrization into layered compositions to further improve the performance of the resulting transport maps. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method on various statistical learning tasks in ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and partial differential equations (PDEs).

Probabilistic programming is perfectly suited to reliable and transparent data science, as it allows the user to specify their models in a high-level language without worrying about the complexities of how to fit the models. Static analysis of probabilistic programs presents even further opportunities for enabling a high-level style of programming, by automating time-consuming and error-prone tasks. We apply static analysis to probabilistic programs to automate large parts of two crucial model checking methods: Prior Predictive Checks and Simulation-Based Calibration. Our method transforms a probabilistic program specifying a density function into an efficient forward-sampling form. To achieve this transformation, we extract a factor graph from a probabilistic program using static analysis, generate a set of proposal directed acyclic graphs using a SAT solver, select a graph which will produce provably correct sampling code, then generate one or more sampling programs. We allow minimal user interaction to broaden the scope of application beyond what is possible with static analysis alone. We present an implementation targeting the popular Stan probabilistic programming language, automating large parts of a robust Bayesian workflow for a wide community of probabilistic programming users.

We develop a stochastic whole-brain and body simulator of the nematode roundworm Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) and show that it is sufficiently regularizing to allow imputation of latent membrane potentials from partial calcium fluorescence imaging observations. This is the first attempt we know of to "complete the circle," where an anatomically grounded whole-connectome simulator is used to impute a time-varying "brain" state at single-cell fidelity from covariates that are measurable in practice. The sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method we employ not only enables imputation of said latent states but also presents a strategy for learning simulator parameters via variational optimization of the noisy model evidence approximation provided by SMC. Our imputation and parameter estimation experiments were conducted on distributed systems using novel implementations of the aforementioned techniques applied to synthetic data of dimension and type representative of that which are measured in laboratories currently.

We propose an exact slice sampler for Hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) and its associated mixture models (Teh et al., 2006). Although there are existing MCMC algorithms for sampling from the HDP, a slice sampler has been missing from the literature. Slice sampling is well-known for its desirable properties including its fast mixing and its natural potential for parallelization. On the other hand, the hierarchical nature of HDPs poses challenges to adopting a full-fledged slice sampler that automatically truncates all the infinite measures involved without ad-hoc modifications. In this work, we adopt the powerful idea of Bayesian variable augmentation to address this challenge. By introducing new latent variables, we obtain a full factorization of the joint distribution that is suitable for slice sampling. Our algorithm has several appealing features such as (1) fast mixing; (2) remaining exact while allowing natural truncation of the underlying infinite-dimensional measures, as in (Kalli et al., 2011), resulting in updates of only a finite number of necessary atoms and weights in each iteration; and (3) being naturally suited to parallel implementations. The underlying principle for joint factorization of the full likelihood is simple and can be applied to many other settings, such as designing sampling algorithms for general dependent Dirichlet process (DDP) models.

Information theoretic quantities play an important role in various settings in machine learning, including causality testing, structure inference in graphical models, time-series problems, feature selection as well as in providing privacy guarantees. A key quantity of interest is the mutual information and generalizations thereof, including conditional mutual information, multivariate mutual information, total correlation and directed information. While the aforementioned information quantities are well defined in arbitrary probability spaces, existing estimators add or subtract entropies (we term them ΣH methods). These methods work only in purely discrete space or purely continuous case since entropy (or differential entropy) is well defined only in that regime. In this paper, we define a general graph divergence measure (GDM),as a measure of incompatibility between the observed distribution and a given graphical model structure. This generalizes the aforementioned information measures and we construct a novel estimator via a coupling trick that directly estimates these multivariate information measures using the Radon-Nikodym derivative. These estimators are proven to be consistent in a general setting which includes several cases where the existing estimators fail, thus providing the only known estimators for the following settings: (1) the data has some discrete and some continuous valued components (2) some (or all) of the components themselves are discrete-continuous mixtures (3) the data is real-valued but does not have a joint density on the entire space, rather is supported on a low-dimensional manifold. We show that our proposed estimators significantly outperform known estimators on synthetic and real datasets.